簡介：◎ 圖解冰島地理景觀 ◎ 冰島金融危機小詞典 ◎ 財經小詞典：currency peg
Iceland’s Economic Recovery
Before the 2008 financial crisis, the Icelandic banking system once held 10 times more foreign currency than the nation’s GDP. From 1994 to 2008, the krona’s value snowballed an astonishing 900 percent. As its currency soared ever higher, the subarctic nation flew too close to the sun, and in 2008, Iceland experienced an economic plummet of historic proportions. Over 80 percent of Iceland’s financial system buckled, 60 percent of its bank assets were written off and its stock market fell by approximately 95 percent.
The fallout from Iceland’s financial meltdown did not linger, however. The Icelandic government threw out the economic recovery rule book when it decreed that — contrary to the American credo — its three largest banks were too big to save. The country also applied capital controls, austerity measures and debt relief to control domestic prices and stabilize its currency, while devaluing the krona approximately 60 percent to maintain static wages.
Nearly a decade later, Iceland has managed not only to survive but to thrive. In 2016, Iceland’s GDP expanded by 7.2 percent and its exports increased by 11.1 percent in real terms. Housing construction investment surged 33.7 percent, and over the last 12 months, the krona’s value has vaulted upward 20 percent versus both the U.S. dollar and euro. As a whole, Iceland’s economy has grown 10 percent larger since its pre-crisis days, prompting Fitch to forecast incoming blue skies and upgrade Iceland’s credit rating from BBB+ to A-.
在 2008 年的金融海嘯以前，冰島銀行系統所持有的外幣一度是該國國內生產毛額的十倍之多。在 1994 至 2008 年間，克朗的幣值飆升了驚人的 900%。隨著貨幣幣值越飆越高，這個亞北極國家飛得離太陽太近，因而在 2008 年遭遇創下歷史記錄的經濟崩跌。冰島超過 80% 的金融體系崩潰，60% 的銀行資產流失，而股市也下跌約 95%。
不過，冰島金融災難的餘波並未延續太久。冰島政府把經濟復甦的守則拋到一旁，採取和美國所秉持信條相反的做法，宣布國內三家最大的銀行大得無法挽救。冰島也採用資本管制、撙節措施與債務紓困以控制國內物價並穩定貨幣，同時也將克朗貶值 60% 左右，藉此維持平穩的工資。
將近十年後，冰島不但存活下來，還繁榮了起來。2016 年，冰島的國內生產毛額擴張 7.2%，出口實質增長率也達 11.1%。住宅建設投資攀升 33.7%，而過去十二個月以來，克朗的幣值對比美元和歐元也上漲了 20%。整體而言，冰島的經濟已較危機前成長了 10%，惠譽因此預測冰島前景看好，並將該國的信用評等從 BBB+ 調升為 A-。